BMW and Subaru are the 2011 model-year winners of the Kelley Blue Book Best Resale Value Awards, which is based on the publication’s projection of how well new models are expected to retain their original list price after five years of ownership.
The average vehicle, regardless of brand, is expected to retain only about 34 percent of its original value after five years. Consequently, a new car costing $50,000 today will be worth only about $17,000 after five years. It is a calculation that can take all the romance out of buying a new car.
The average 2011 Subaru, however, would retain 39 percent of its original value, while a BMW would hold 37.1 percent.
According to Kelley Blue Book’s editors, this year’s race was very close, with last year’s winners, Toyota and Lexus, barely missing the podium. “Subaru and BMW just nosed them out,” said James Bell, executive market analyst for the service’s Web site.
“One of the reasons Subaru has done well and just squeaked by Toyota this year is the fact that they’ve got a nice balance between supply and demand,” Mr. Bell said. “Their dealers are clamoring for more product because they know they can sell more. But the flip side of that is that they are able to sell the product that they do have at or near full M.S.R.P., and that has a huge factor in resale value as well.”
In addition to the brand’s management of supply and demand, much of a vehicle’s resale value is, according to Kelley Blue Book, also based on current and projected future market conditions. However, vehicles that best maintain their value are those that are never heavily discounted.
“Vehicle depreciation is important because it can be one of the biggest expenses during the first five years of ownership if you do not choose wisely,” Mr. Bell said. “And it is something that most people don’t consider when they are looking at cost of ownership, because buying a new vehicle is a pretty romantic and exciting thing to do.”
But, if you consider a vehicle with a high resale value, you might be able to buy one that was a little nicer and more expensive than you thought your budget could accommodate because you would be paid back at trade-in time, he said.
Winners by vehicle category with the best resale value are:
? Honda Fit (subcompact)
? Mini Cooper (compact)
? Honda Accord (midsize)
? Ford Taurus (full-size)
? Lexus IS (near-luxury)
? Audi A5 (luxury)
? Subaru Impreza WRX (sports car)
? Ford Mustang GT (high-performance)
? Volkswagen Golf TDI (hybrid/alternative energy)
? Honda CR-V (compact utility vehicle)
? Toyota FJ Cruiser (midsize utility)
? GMC Acadia (full-size utility)
? BMW X5 (luxury utility)
? BMW X5 XDrive 35d (hybrid/alternative energy utility)
? Toyota Tacoma (midsize pickup)
? Ford F-Series Super Duty (full-size pickup)
? Toyota Sienna (van)
? Subaru Outback (wagon)
Among this group, the vehicle with the highest resale value is the Honda CR-V at 46.8 percent, and the vehicle with the lowest resale value in the group is the Ford Taurus at 32.3 percent.
In dollars and cents this means that a base model 2011 Honda CR-V, which has a list price of $22,475, will have a resale value of $10,518.30 after five years. A 2011 Ford Taurus base model, which starts at $25,995, is projected to have a resale value of $8,396.39.
Residual values reflect projected future auction values for vehicles in average condition with 75,000 miles at the end of a five-year lease or ownership period. Low-volume vehicles or vehicles with a list price of more than $60,000 are excluded from consideration for the awards, except in the luxury and high-performance categories.
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