As bad as the election results were for House Democrats, another set of returns could further imperil their political lives for the next decade.
In numerous large battleground states, Republicans made substantial gains of governor offices and legislative chambers. That, in turn, will strengthen their hand in next year’s redistricting efforts, which will be launched officially next month when the Census Bureau’s 2010 state-by-state population count will produce the reapportionment of the House that will be elected in November 2012.
In Tuesday’s elections, Republicans gained at least 19 legislative chambers for a total of at least 55 in the 50 states. They will have bicameral control in a disproportionate share of the largest states, according to tentative post-election reviews by both parties.
The consequences for redistricting will be significant, not least because Republicans gained numerous House seats in those states that they will be better-positioned to safeguard two years from now. In most of the 10 states that are tentatively expected to lose House seats, the seat losses are more likely to come from Democrats.
“Between 15 and 25 [House] seats will be protected … or are more likely to be Republican after redistricting, after we have won these legislative chambers,” said Ed Gillespie, chairman of the Republican State Leadership Committee, which spent an estimated $30 million to influence those results.
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